cobraWstreet
Report May 2026
Executive Summary MESA Projection One-step forecast bands: Interpretation:The point forecast sits above the April close, giving the model a constructive…
Report April 2026
Constructive Seasonal Bias with Wide Volatility Bands Executive Summary MESA Projection (Burg Autoregressive Model) One-step forecast bands (based on model…
Report March 2026
High-Variance Setup with Mixed Signals Executive Summary MESA Projection (Burg Autoregressive Model) One-step forecast bands (based on model σ): Interpretation:The…
Report February 2026
Executive Summary MESA Projection (Burg Autoregressive Model) Interpretation: the point forecast is modestly higher than the prior close, but the…
Report January 2026
Executive summary MESA projection (Burg AR on monthly closes) Interpretation: the AR model leans up, but with high uncertainty (the…
Report December 2025
1. Executive summary Overall: December statistically tends to be a weak month, and the MESA point forecast is slightly below…
Positions Updates November
This month, we’re looking at commodities in general. I’m not including oil and natural gas because, as you know, I…
Report November 2025
Natural Gas futures ended October 2025 at 4.107, extending the early autumn recovery that began in late August. The MESA…
COBRA Indicator
The COBRA Indicator is a proprietary tool, that combines two variants of the MESA Stochastic algorithm to provide clearer and…