Report April

Below is a detailed analysis of the closing price trends for the month of April from 2004 to 2024, based on the provided dataset of monthly closing prices. The analysis identifies the years with the biggest increase and decrease in closing prices, calculates the average percentage change for April, and provides a projection for April 2025.

Biggest Year Increase

• Year: 2022
• Increase: 28.39%
• Details: The closing price rose from an opening price of 5,627 on April 1, 2022, to a closing price of 7,244 on the last trading day of April 2022. This significant increase reflects a strong bullish trend, possibly driven by favorable market conditions or a recovery period during that year.

Biggest Year Decrease

• Year: 2005
• Decrease: -13.96%
• Details: The closing price dropped from an opening price of 7,650 on April 1, 2005, to a closing price of 6,585 by the end of April 2005. This substantial decline suggests a bearish market, potentially influenced by economic downturns or corrections at the time.

Average Percent Change

Thus, the average percentage change for April over the last 20 years is approximately 5.32%. This positive average indicates that April has historically been a month of growth in closing prices.

Current Price and Recent Trends

The current price of natural gas at Henry Hub is approximately $3.95 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) as of March 27, 2025, according to Yahoo Finance. Over the past 30 days, prices have fluctuated between $3.80 and $4.10, showing an upward trend.

COT Report and Trader Positions

The Commitment of Traders (COT) analysis shows that speculators hold a net short position of approximately -112,967 contracts, but they are reducing these positions, which could lead to stabilization or a slight price increase. Commercial traders, conversely, hold a net long position of 1,087,857 contracts, indicating preparation for potential price increases. Additionally, as of March 25, 2025, natural gas has a net long position of 106,547 contracts, up by 11%, suggesting a mildly bullish sentiment.

Weather Conditions

Weather forecasts indicate a warmer-than-usual spring in many regions, but with heavy rain and severe weather conditions in some areas, such as Texas, the Midwest, and the West Coast. This could reduce demand for heating but increase demand for electricity generation in case of outages, according to The Weather Channel.

Economic Forecasts

Economic forecasts are mixed: some, like Deloitte Insights, predict real GDP growth of 2.6% in 2025, while others, such as EY, suggest a slowdown with a 40% chance of recession in the next 12 months. This could influence industrial and commercial demand for natural gas.

Supply and Demand

Natural gas production in the U.S. is expected to grow slightly in 2025, but demand, driven by LNG exports and the power sector, is projected to grow more rapidly, according to the EIA. This imbalance could lead to higher prices, with forecasts indicating an average of $4.20/MMBtu in 2025.

Forecasts for 1 Week, 2 Weeks, and 1 Month
Based on these factors, the forecasts are:

• 1 Week (April 7, 2025): $4.05-$4.15/MMBtu, reflecting stabilization with possible increases due to short position covering.
• 2 Weeks (April 14, 2025): $4.15-$4.25/MMBtu, considering additional economic data and weather conditions.
• 1 Month (April 30, 2025): $4.25-$4.35/MMBtu, with demand outpacing supply and prices rising.

Detailed Analysis Note
This section provides an in-depth analysis of the collected information, including all relevant details to support natural gas price forecasts for 1 week, 2 weeks, and 1 month from March 31, 2025. The analysis is based on market data, economic forecasts, weather conditions, and supply-demand dynamics, with tables and considerations for a comprehensive understanding.

Market Context and Current Data
The current price of natural gas at Henry Hub, the benchmark for the U.S. market, is approximately $3.95/MMBtu as of March 27, 2025, according to Yahoo Finance. This aligns with recent data showing an upward trend over the past 30 days, with fluctuations between $3.80 and $4.10, as reported by MacroTrends. Volatility is influenced by weather conditions, production, and global demand.

COT Report Analysis
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report provides insights into trader positions. From the extracted data, speculators (non-commercial traders) hold a net short position of approximately -112,967 contracts as of February 2025, but this has decreased from October 2024 (-207,553), indicating a reduction in bearish pressure. Commercial traders (hedgers) maintain a significant net long position of 1,087,857 contracts, suggesting preparation for potential price increases. Additionally, as of March 25, 2025, natural gas shows a net long position of 106,547 contracts, up 11%, as reported in a second report, indicating a less bearish sentiment.

Impact of Weather Conditions
Weather forecasts for the next two weeks, according to The Weather Channel, indicate a warmer-than-usual spring in many regions, particularly from the Southwest to the Plains. However, storm systems are bringing heavy rain to Texas, the Midwest, and the West Coast, with a risk of ice storms in the Upper Midwest and Northeast. While overall warming may reduce demand, extreme weather events could increase demand for electricity generation, impacting prices. For example, WeatherBug predicts thunderstorms and potential outages that could boost demand.

Economic Forecasts and Demand
Economic forecasts are mixed. Deloitte Insights predicts real GDP growth of 2.6% in 2025, while the EY US Economic Outlook suggests a slowdown with a 40% chance of recession in the next 12 months. This could affect industrial and commercial demand for natural gas, with varying impacts depending on economic growth. Demand is also driven by LNG exports, with new facilities like Plaquemines LNG and Corpus Christi Stage 3 starting production in December 2024, according to the EIA.

Supply and Market Dynamics
Natural gas production in the U.S. is projected to grow, averaging 105 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025, according to the EIA. However, demand is expected to grow faster, with a 3% increase or 3.2 Bcf/d, outpacing supply and leading to storage levels 10% below the five-year average by the end of March 2025. This imbalance, combined with higher global demand, is expected to push prices upward, with forecasts indicating an average of $4.20/MMBtu in 2025, according to the EIA.

Detailed Forecasts
Based on these factors, the natural gas price forecasts are as follows:

• 1 Week (April 7, 2025): $4.05-$4.15/MMBtu. This forecast reflects stabilization with possible increases due to speculators covering short positions and mixed weather conditions that could keep demand steady.
• 2 Weeks (April 14, 2025): $4.15-$4.25/MMBtu. Accounting for additional economic data and weather conditions, a slight increase is expected, supported by growing demand and shrinking inventories.
• 1 Month (April 30, 2025): $4.25-$4.35/MMBtu. With demand outpacing supply and forecasts of higher average prices in 2025, a further increase is anticipated, reflecting longer-term market dynamics.

MESA

Based on this simulation with the MESA method, the price projections are:

• 1 Week (April 7, 2025): 4,305 (+2.5%)
• 2 Weeks (April 14, 2025): 4,414 (+5.1%)
• 1 Month (April 30, 2025): 4,250 (+1.2%)

Cyclical consideration

From a cyclical point of view around mid-November we went against the trend, in fact it did not respect the downward cycle and resumed its ascent. We are now at a critical point where we may indeed see a downtrend and not an uptrend as we are statistically accustomed to believe. So also considering the economic and political period we are experiencing, it is likely that we will see prices stabilise here. We must watch this month of April well because we are now on the cyclical peak and it is essential to monitor the situation well at the cyclical level.