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Thanks for the explanation Cobra. I have a question about how to interpret the current situation with regards to KOLD and BOIL etf’s. Both of these ETF’s seem to hold 2025 March contracts.
As of today,current prices are:
Spot: 3.682
NGH2025: 2.965
Therefore there is backwardation. In the future prices are expected to fall.
However, at some point future and spot prices should converge. Even if spot price decrease, should we expect that futures price will decrease less in order to converge both prices? Should we interpret this as negative for KOLD and positive for BOIL prices?
You’re absolutely right to point out that futures and spot prices eventually converge as the contract approaches its expiration. In the current situation:
Backwardation Insight: Backwardation indicates that the market expects lower prices in the future. This could reflect factors like reduced demand, seasonal shifts, or expectations of higher supply.
Price Convergence Dynamics: As the March 2025 contract nears expiration, the futures price should adjust towards the spot price. Whether the spot price decreases or futures price increases will depend on market conditions at that time.
Impact on KOLD and BOIL:
KOLD profits when natural gas prices decrease, while BOIL profits when they increase.
If the spot price decreases significantly, it could be negative for BOIL and positive for KOLD.
If the futures price “catches up” to a higher spot price (or falls less), that might support BOIL, depending on the degree of convergence.
The key factor is how much the spot price changes relative to the futures price during this backwardation. Watching the pace of convergence and any shifts in market sentiment will help interpret the potential impacts on KOLD and BOIL.